6:57 AM
killnine
7:00 PM
killnine
2:56 AM
killnine
5:01 PM
killnine
7:39 AM
killnine
7:35 AM
killnine
8:37 AM
killnine
11:17 PM
killnine
7:45 AM
killnine
11:34 PM
killnine
10:45 PM
killnine
9:11 PM
killnine
7:25 AM
killnine
10:06 PM
killnine
7:29 AM
killnine
1:52 AM
killnine
12:08 AM
killnine
The stock market has behaved quite well lately, today's drop notwithstanding. But the credit markets continue to tell a different story, one that could have negative implications for some banks and the economy overall. That's worth keeping an eye on.
No matter how you slice it, there is real fear out there of another September shoe to drop.
Let it also be stated that all major US indexes are STILL in a confirmed downtrend on the Daily Charts. Traders may be missing this if they�re not careful with their interpretation of trends.
Price has not made a higher high, and until it does, price REMAINS in a confirmed daily downtrend on all indexes. Be careful of this fact. This is not the time to leverage long positions to the hilt.
You can become more comfortable with any long positions when price makes a higher high and later changes into a confirmed uptrend.
Until then, we seem to be having consolidation on the daily charts. This will probably be the dominant technical picture until the Fed changes or leaves unchanged Interest Rates in their September 18th meeting.
�.. it's important to understand what is currently priced into the marketplace. If we don't get a cut later this month, which I think is certainly more probable than the markets currently are telling us, then stocks are going to sell-off. That is what we open ourselves up to when the market prices in something as a certainty even though there is still an undeniable fact that nothing is certain about the September FOMC meeting.
And even if we do get a cut of 25 basis points, we could still see the market not react positively because more than half of people right now expect 50 basis points (who knows what that number will be at meeting time). Just be aware that the risk-reward trade off right now in the short term doesn't appear all that favorable as long as you assume two things. One, the fed fund futures market accurately gauges what the market is currently pricing into prices. And two, the market will be reacting to interest rate speculation and action in coming weeks.
8:17 AM
killnine
in his free weekly newsletter for Aug 22, 2007 on his opinion about the current market�s condition and if the interest rate cut will move the market up.If an investor invested $10,000 in the DJIA on November 1 and sold on April 30 every year from 1950 to 2004, they would have earned $492,060. If this same investor did the opposite and had bought on May 1 and sold on October 31 from 1950 to 2004, a $318 loss would have resulted. That is an amazing stat, one that is difficult to fathom. This trend extends outside of the American stock market as an article from December 2002 of the American Economic Review says that such a statistical pattern existed in the U.K. stock market as far back as 1694 and still exists today.Enjoy the long weekend!
11:29 AM
killnine
11:12 PM
killnine
